From May 25 to 27, widespread rainfall persisted across central and eastern China. Regions such as Hubei and Anhui faced heightened risks of disasters triggered by heavy downpours; Xiaogan, Jingmen, Chizhou, and Anqing experienced extremely heavy rainstorms. Meanwhile, as the subtropical high intensified and shifted northward, much of southern China endured the broadest heatwave this year — with Changsha and Fuzhou likely seeing their first scorching day of 2026, while nighttime lows neared or exceeded 25°C. In contrast, northern areas saw temperatures drop by 4–10°C due to cold air. According to forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration, this rainfall event covered a vast area and brought substantial cumulative precipitation; residents must stay vigilant against flash floods, geological hazards, and urban waterlogging.
These extreme weather events align with broader climate trends. Citing multiple sources, the Shanghai Institute for Science of Science notes that NOAA data indicates a 37% chance of an exceptionally strong El Niño occurring between November–December this year and January next year. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts estimates there’s a 50% likelihood that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific will rise by 2.5°C in October; two of its models even predict anomalies exceeding 3°C, which would constitute the strongest El Niño on record. Climate scientist James Hansen of Columbia University predicts that “2026 will set new temperature records,” while Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth offers a more measured outlook: a 26% probability that 2026 becomes the hottest year ever recorded, and a 56% chance it ranks second. So far, 2024 holds the title of the warmest year on record, with global average temperatures rising over 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time.