Amazon Senior Vice President Peter DeSantis said in an interview with CNBC on June 17 that the first “commercially viable small-scale quantum computer” will emerge within the next five to seven years, and will then follow a development trajectory similar to Moore’s Law — “getting bigger and stronger each year, able to solve more and more complex and interesting problems.” This is the first time Amazon has given a clear timeline for practical quantum computing. DeSantis was appointed earlier this year to lead the newly formed long-term technology investment division, overseeing general artificial intelligence, proprietary chips, and quantum computing. He has been with Amazon for 27 years. He emphasized that quantum computers are not faster versions of ordinary computers, but are designed specifically to solve certain problems that traditional computers struggle with, with the first applications likely in fields like chemistry and materials science, which are themselves inherently quantum in nature. Last year, Amazon released its Ocelot quantum chip, targeting the core technical challenge of quantum error correction.
DeSantis’s projection falls in the middle of the range of predictions from industry competitors: Google’s quantum computing executive Julian Kelly said last year that practical applications were about five years away, Microsoft expects commercial viability by 2029, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said last year that “15 years would be optimistic” (he later walked back that comment). This statement from Amazon marks a shift among top tech companies in the quantum computing field from technological exploration toward clearer expectations for commercial deployment — a battleground where Google, IBM, Microsoft, and numerous startups are fiercely competing. Jeff Bezos has also made deep personal investments in the quantum field through IonQ and other companies.